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Back in the start of the year, amid the president’s campaign vows to end the conflict in Ukraine in under 24 hours” remaining fresh in memory, there was genuine concern in the Russian capital over the US leader’s intentions. When Mr. Trump suggested that significant levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Restrictions” on Russia could be necessary, one well-known pro-war Moscow analyst remarked: “It’s better to get ready for the worst. Soon, we’ll look back on Biden’s term with nostalgia, like a thaw.”

Unfulfilled Warnings and Failed Opportunities

Just how wrong can you be? From then, the American leader has consistently talked a big game without managing to walking the walk. In May, after Vladimir Putin turned down a month-long ceasefire, and peace talks in Turkey went nowhere, a devastating” US penalties package did not to appear. An 8 August deadline for Mr Putin to agree to a ceasefire inexplicably turned into a lavish welcome in Alaska, where Mr Trump praised a leader wanted for atrocities as he disembarked from his plane. The “severe consequences” warned of by Mr Trump if the Alaska talks did not lead to peace did not happened.

Emboldened Actions and Allied Vulnerabilities

Emboldened, Mr Putin has thus persisted to prosecute his war aims in Ukraine, and probe for western weaknesses. The previous week’s incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory laid bare insufficient Nato planning, as F-35 and F-16 fighter jets were quickly dispatched to counter low-cost suicide devices that are priced around $ten thousand each to produce. It also communicated a warning of possible escalation in the event of any future “reassurance force” deploying European troops on Ukrainian soil. Such provocation called for a strong and coordinated response, exerting the kind of pressure on the Kremlin which Mr Trump has so far refused to consider. Instead the US president seems, yet again, to prefer bullying his European allies to targeting Mr Putin. In a announcement which smacked of bad faith, Mr Trump stated over the weekend that the US was “ready” to impose stricter sanctions on Russia, but only if certain improbable conditions were met.

Unrealistic Demands and Economic Leverage

Eyeing a significant economic prize, Washington is demanding that the EU must increase its imports of US LNG at a rate that analysts judge undoable. Other demands include the imposition by the EU of 50%-100% tariffs on Russia’s most important ally, China, and an end to all imports of Russian oil by Nato members. This includes Turkey, which has refused to sanction Moscow, imports 57% of its oil from Russia, and lies outside the EU.

Observers looking on the bright side in Brussels hope that Mr Trump’s pressure may persuade Maga-friendly governments in Hungary and Slovakia to end their heavy dependence on Russian energy imports. That is extremely unlikely to happen, as Mr Trump and his advisers must know. Nor can the EU afford to risk the kind of economic retaliation from Beijing that caused Mr Trump himself to retreat from a full-blown trade war not long ago.

Ominous Events and Lack of Action

During this week’s state visit, it will be Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to try to press Mr Trump down on decisive action. But from the unproductive Alaska talks to his latest diversionary tactics with the EU, Mr Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Last week’s drone incursion in Poland represented an ominous raising of the ante. Ukraine’s prospects, and wider European security interests, are being steadily undermined by a president who, in this context, threatens but never acts.