Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
